THE EVOLVING REGIONAL ORDER AND A QUEST FOR INDONESIA

The evolving international politics after the post-Cold War have shown that the dynamic relations among great powers are significantly characterized by both competitive and cooperative relationship. The transition from the unipolar system after the post-Cold War era become the main reason of this contradictive feature of a new emerging order, in accordance with the re- adjustments of the international order. These adjustments are being a part of the process of the rise and fall of great powers, which is happened because of the change or the shift in the relative distribution of power among those great powers. During this process, we can say that the global order is still in its transitional phase.

At this moment, the power shift in the world are characterized by some tendencies; (1) the continuity of the US hegemony and primacy, (2) the emergence of the rising China, (3) the increasing of Japan’s involvement in the global peace keeping operations, and (3) the emergence of India as potential major power. Nonetheless, it seems that the rise of China become the key driver of this power shift process. As mentioned by Shambaugh, the structures of power and parameters of interactions that have characterized international relations in the Asian region over the last half century are being fundamentally affected by, among other factors, China’s growing economic and military power, rising political influence, distinctive diplomatic voice, and increasing involvement in regional multilateral institutions. Hence, it seems that the characteristic relations among major powers in the next decade might be based on, or responded to the factor of the rising China.

Meanwhile, the increasing role of China in terms of economy and military, have given China a chance to strengthening its diplomatic position and influence within the regions. Thus, it can be a potential cause for a major power shift with all its impact, whether positive or negative impact. As a sole superpower, the US surely would not be relaxed with this situation. Why? It is due to the fact that the main strategic interest of the US in East Asian region –now and then- will be focused on the maintaining of the US hegemony and primacy. Even though the US hegemony still existed, and yet, China still in their long way to go to challenge the US dominance, the phenomenon of the rising China will be the most significant issue to determine the future of the US position, both in the global and regional politics.

The biggest challenge for the US, in my opinion, is how to respond and accommodate the rising power of China, so that China can be a good player and partner to maintain the stability and security in the region, and, at the same time, to contain China from being threatening the US dominance. But it looks like the US still trying to find the right strategy to overcome this situation. Despite the tangible and positive cooperation that China and US have today, there remain evident suspicions and distrust of the other’s motive and action. Thus, we can also see there’s an ambiguity of the US policy toward China, whether they consider China as a “partner”, “strategic competitor”, or even “enemy” of the US. As a result, the state of the US-China relations today may be characterized by David M. Lampton’s term “hedged engagement”, whereby both sides are engaging to a significant extent, yet are hedging against the possibility of a deterioration of ties.

The US practice the hedging strategy in order to maintain mutual economic cooperation with China, while managing the suspicions of China’s motives and actions that may threat the US dominance, and also endanger the regional security. The US hedging strategy is also reflected on the US policy towards its alliances. In the case of Japan, for instance, the US has pushed for Japan to assume a larger role in Asian regional maritime security, increase its defense spending, modernize its forces, and contribute more to international peace keeping. In addition, both countries have already taken strategic steps to strengthening their alliance.
In this emerging and evolving regional order, however, it is still too early and difficult to find out the final form of the transforming process of the regional order. Though the US primacy still remains, the influence of China, and to some extent, the existence of Russia as an ex-superpower, can not be simply abandoned. In the future, the features of new regional dynamics will be more multifaceted, with major powers vying for influence and maintaining their dominance, or even, creating power of balance.

This feature of global politics, however, will be a serious challenge for the Southeast Asian countries, especially for countries with an open and broad territory like Indonesia. The potential security threat, for instance, will always exist. So far, Indonesia –and other ASEAN countries- are relatively successful in preventing regional conflicts among its member. But with the new emerging regional order today, it will create a more challenging situations and threats; the possibility of a condominium powers, or the possibility of major power rivalry that may lead Asian regional states to their worst nightmare where they would be put in the position of having to choose sides.

What Indonesia can do in order to respond this new emerging situation? It is acknowledgeable that Indonesia is not a big power state with high leverage. Therefore, it is important for Indonesia to be realistic in determining its role as a middle power state. In this context, we can look at the prospective situation for Indonesia to increase its role, referring to its membership in the UN and ASEAN. In my opinion, Indonesia can actually play its positive role in the international politics with its membership in the United Nations, and yet, plays its pivotal role in the region through ASEAN, where Indonesia still considered as one of the major state in that regional institution. By being the UN member, Indonesia can endorse ASEAN to be more active in creating peace and security in the region, as expected by the UN Charter. And as a new democratic state, Indonesia has many chances to play its role in the issues related to conflict resolution, peace keeping and peace building.

The human rights issue in Myanmar can be a case of which Indonesia can play a more sustentative role in resolving the Myanmar conflict, since Myanmar’s case has also become one of the UN agenda. Further, as Indonesia known to be the biggest moderate-Moslem state in the world, the issue of terrorism somehow still remains there. Since terrorism seems to be strongly labeled to Islam, it is an important for Indonesia to show how they can overcome this problem correctly. Thus, Indonesia then will be able to position itself as a positive and moderating force in dealing with significant issues related to security and world’s peace keeping issues; human rights, humanitarian crisis, terrorism and clash of civilization, or other non traditional security issues. If Indonesian government keeps increasing their international role, I believe that eventually Indonesia can be a pivotal player within the region.



REFERENCE
David Shambaugh, “Asia in Transition: The Evolving Regional Order,” Current History, April 2006
David Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics, Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005
Evan S. Medeiros, "Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability," Washington Quarterly, Vol 29, No. 1, Winter 2005-2006
Evelyn Goh, “Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia,” International Security Vol. 32, No. 3, Winter 2007/08
John David Ciorciari, “The Balance of Great-Power Influence in Contemporary Southeast Asia,” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific Vol. 9, 2009
T.V. Paul, et al., eds., Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, Stanford: Stanford University, 2004